2026 on Track for Second-Hottest Year as Climate-Driven Heat, Fires, and Storms Intensify

Green Watch Report !

Climate change is significantly amplifying extreme weather, heat, and related impacts in 2026, which is on track to be one of the warmest years on record (likely second after 2024, or possibly the warmest depending on the dataset and a developing strong/super El Niño).** Global temperatures in the first half of the year were around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels (third-warmest start), with May and June among the second-warmest on record as El Niño strengthened. Projections put the full-year average near 1.45–1.58°C above pre-industrial levels, with a rising chance (around 35% in some analyses) of setting a new record.

Key Observed Impacts in 2026

- **Extreme heatwaves**: Western Europe saw its hottest June on record (about 3°C above recent averages in places), with national records broken (e.g., France 44.3°C, UK June highs). Heat domes caused thousands of estimated deaths in Europe; similar extremes hit parts of North America, Africa, Asia, and elsewhere. Attribution studies link human-caused warming to making these events far more likely and intense (often tens to hundreds of times more probable than in a pre-industrial climate; virtually impossible in some cases without warming).

- **Wildfires**: Severe seasons in the western US (over 5 million acres burned by early August, well above average; high preparedness levels), Canada, Europe (France, Spain, Greece, etc.), North Africa, and elsewhere. Hot, dry conditions driven by climate change increased fire weather risk. Smoke affected air quality across large regions, including the eastern US.

- **Storms, floods, and other extremes**: Multiple US billion-dollar disasters in the first half of the year (12 events, ~$32 billion in damages, dozens of fatalities), mostly severe storms/tornadoes. Flooding in places like Texas, Hawaii, Gulf of Guinea coast, and elsewhere. Drought and low snowpack strained water supplies (e.g., Colorado River basin).

- **Broader and compounding effects**: Nearly all children face at least one climate hazard; over a billion face three or more overlapping ones (heat, floods, drought, fires, storms). Rising disaster costs, health impacts (heat-related illness/deaths, smoke, vector-borne disease risks), crop/water stress, and infrastructure strain. Oceans set records for heat in some months; marine heatwaves were widespread.

A rapidly developing El Niño (already strong and forecast potentially as a record “super” event) is expected to add further warmth later in 2026 into 2027 and raise risks of more extremes (e.g., droughts in some regions, heavier rains/floods in others).

These effects build on the long-term trend: the recent decade has been the warmest on record, with human-caused greenhouse gases the dominant driver of increased heat extremes, heavier precipitation in many areas, and fire-prone conditions. Impacts are already widespread and intensifying faster than earlier assessments in some cases, with vulnerable populations and regions hit hardest. Adaptation efforts exist but are often insufficient relative to the rising risks.